2012年03月10日
发表于： 2012-03-11 04:50:22
The iPad Is Unbeatable
Why Apple’s tablet competitors don’t stand a chance—and maybe never will.
By
Farhad Manjoo
Updated Thursday, March 8, 2012, at 7:01 PM ET
Imagine you run a large technology company not named Apple. Let’s say you’re Steve Ballmer, Michael Dell, Meg Whitman, Larry Page, or Intel’s Paul Otellini. How are you feeling today, a day after Apple CEO Tim Cook unveiled the new iPad? Are you discounting the device as just an incremental improvement, the same shiny tablet with a better screen and faster cellular access? Or is it possible you had trouble sleeping last night? Did you toss and turn, worrying that Apple’s new device represents a potential knockout punch, a move that will cement its place as the undisputed leader of the biggest, most disruptive new tech market since the advent of the Web browser? Maybe your last few hours have been even worse than that. Perhaps you’re now paralyzed with confusion, fearful that you might be completely boxed in by the iPad—that there seems no good way to beat it.
For your sake, my hypothetical CEO friend, I hope you’re frightened.
Bear with me; there’s a good chance I’ll run out of superlatives to describe Apple’s tremendous, astonishing, stupendous, unbelievable emerging position in the tablet market. But I think the overkill is justified, as I worry that Apple’s rivals haven’t adequately taken stock of the potential disaster that lies ahead of them. Since the middle of 2010, when it became obvious that the then-new iPad would become a blockbuster, I’ve been sketching out two possible scenarios for the tablet market. First, it could go like the smartphone business—one in which Apple commands a healthy share of sales and an even better share of the profits, but where its fortunes are nevertheless circumscribed by competitive rivals whose products have come to be seen as acceptable alternatives. If the tablet market shaped up like the smartphone market, it wouldn’t be a great outcome for Microsoft, Dell, Intel, HP, Samsung, HTC, or Google, but it wouldn’t be catastrophic, either.
The other potential scenario, though, is far less optimistic for Apple’s competitors. It’s the iPod model. In this story, Apple begins by releasing a novel, category-defining product. Then, as rivals scramble for some way to respond, Apple relentlessly puts out slightly better versions every year, each time remaining just out of reach of the competition. Meanwhile it lowers its prices and expands its product lineup, making its devices more accessible to a wider audience. Then, to finish the game, it finds a way to boost its position through network effects and customer lock-in. (In the iPod’s case, it accomplished this through the iTunes software and built-in music store.) Put it all together and you have a device that’s unbeatable. In 2011, 10 years after its release, the iPod still represented a whopping
78 percent of the market share in music players
.
It’s been two years since Apple’s tablet went on sale. Rivals have released dozens of alternatives, but the iPad still represents more than 60 percent of market share. Worse, the rest of the market is dominated by two devices that are
being sold at a loss
—Amazon’s Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble’s Nook. At yesterday’s launch event, Apple did everything it needed to do to repeat the iPod story. First, the iPad’s new “Retina” display and 4G networking will improve the device just enough to make it difficult to match, let alone beat. More importantly, Cook expanded his product lineup and lowered his prices. The new iPad starts at 399. See how this shaping up? The iPad market is looking more and more like a sequel to what happened with the iPod. Like most sequels, this one will be bigger and way scarier for everyone involved.
Let’s go back to pretending you’re one of Apple’s competitors. How can you possibly beat the iPad? Well, not on price. Even before the new iPad, rivals were having a
hard time matching Apple’s prices
while still making a profit. Now that the cheapest iPad cost $399, they face an even tougher road. Because Apple has used its plentiful cash to corner the market on key tablet components—like touch-screen displays—many competitors will find that the only way to make a tablet with comparable features but a lower price is to sell it at a loss. You can’t do that unless you have some other way to make money, like a big digital media store.
OK, so price is out. How about features, then? What if you make a tablet that includes all the stuff that Apple didn’t add to the iPad? That’s precisely what most competitors have been trying to do for the last two years, and it hasn’t worked. Part of the problem is that nobody really wants the alleged improvements to the iPad—Flash and extra hardware ports, for instance. The bigger problem is that, as a technical matter, rivals are having a very hard time beating Apple’s most important features. The iPad’s custom-made processors and battery technology mean that it keeps getting more powerful without sacrificing any battery life. None of Apple’s rivals has managed to even match the iPad’s battery life.
Well, if you can’t beat the iPad with better hardware, can’t you do it with better software? As
I wrote last week
, I’m eager to see tablets running Microsoft’s fine new version of Windows later this year. But even if Windows 8 tablets prove to be amazing—a big if, considering that we still haven’t seen great tablets to run the new OS—they would still lack all of the tablet-optimized apps that are now clogging Apple’s App Store. I suspect that when people choose a tablet, the number of apps will prove more important than when people choose a phone; you can still get a lot of use out of a phone without extra apps, but what’s the point of a tablet if it doesn’t have great apps?
Microsoft may thus find itself on the wrong end of a network-effects loop, the same position it once pushed Apple into in the PC market: Customers will choose an iPad over a Microsoft tablet because there are 200,000 apps for the iPad, and only a fraction of that for Windows. This will push app developers to favor the iPad over Windows as their primary platform—that’s where the customers are—which will, in turn, fuel more iPad sales. At some point, customer lock-in will become extremely important: If your last tablet was an iPad, your next one will be too, because that’s where all your apps are.
There’s one potential escape for Apple’s competitors, but it’s so unlikely that it seems almost crazy to mention it: What if the tablet business proves to be something of a fad? I’ve heard this theory often from readers who are puzzled by
predictions
that tablets and phones will grow to replace PCs as the central computing devices of our lives. There’s a vocal contingent who believe that the iPad will never be good for anything other than lazy consumption of media; sure, people are snapping them up now, but once we realize their limitations, we’ll still keep buying and using regular old computers.
I doubt that’s true—every trend in the industry says that many people want smaller, easier, and more manageable computers for home and for work, and that means tablets. But I wonder if the tablet-as-fad scenario is something that Apple’s rivals are secretly banking on.
Because if they really believed that tablets will come to eclipse PCs, and if they saw how thoroughly unbeatable the iPad is becoming, wouldn’t they be running around with their hair on fire? If the iPad becomes the future of computing, the fortunes of Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and to some extent Hewlett-Packard will begin to plummet. Meanwhile Google, which makes all its money through ads, will find itself reaching its customers through a device made by a hostile rival.
As I said: Be very afraid.
评论
- lanlanpei (2012-03-15 23:46): 祝您及您的宝贝女儿生日快乐！好幸福的一家人，真羡慕！
- Furrywalls (2012-03-11 22:23): 先祝段总和女儿生日快乐，今年心想事成！ 苹果表现为一个摇滚巨星，在外在光环的背后，其实有一个强大的实力，这是容易被人忽视的地方。 1）它在专业领域中关于价格、物料成本控制具有强有力的优势，在产品上足可以发动一个价格战争。貌似高端的形象之上， IPAD 3 的产品价格其实是相当便宜的，与对手的产品价格相当，苹果有能力真正打一个价格战。 2）苹果产品除外表时尚，而且功能吸引人，品牌卓越这些优势下，容易被人忽视的是设计、制造和供应链管理。举例说，一般让山寨厂商把iPhone 零件全买下来，它的成本就和iPhone 成品价格相当，i Pad 成本比这低得多，仍然能保证获得巨额利润。iPhone 一代到四代价格不变，却能越来越大规模的零件升级这一点极具优势，那么相信i Pad 3 有一个光明的前景。 只要i Pad 3 不出现重大纰漏，类似当年的iPhone 4 死亡易握，它的销售前景极好。苹果公司继续保持领先优势。 < xmlnamespace prefix ="o" ns ="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
- 段永平 → Furrywalls (2012-03-12 08:06): 其实苹果的强大实力是不容易也不应该被忽视的，除非你有意去忽视，但鸵鸟的办法不会有任何帮助。任何一个被苹果直接或间接、现在或未来影响到的行业里的企业大概早晚都要面对苹果的强大实力的。随便举几个已经受到影响的行业或产品吧：手机、电脑、手提电脑、游戏（包括网游）、游戏机、中低端相机和录像机、音乐、电影、书、电视、网络、运营商、所有相关产品的零售、几乎所有的电子消费品......欢迎补充。找到在苹果生态系统里生存的方式也许比挑战苹果要来的更现实一些。能够避开苹果也许是另一个办法。
- oppoks → 段永平 (2012-03-12 08:25): 看来买苹果的股票是个不错的选择！
- 海上明月 → 段永平 (2012-03-12 10:52): 祝段总和家人天天快乐，日日平安。 < xmlnamespace prefix ="o" ns ="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> 3 月 11 日还是菩萨节，段总开博授人以渔也是行菩萨善举。或许冥冥之中自有天意。 我从 “ 书 ” 这个范畴稍微想象了下，吓了一跳。 我是小学老师，多年前就有个梦想：希望有一天我们的学习教材特别是学生用书全部采用电子书。这样环保且内容丰富多采。现在苹果 IPAD 已经提供了足够好的硬件，或许内容只是个时间问题了。这是多大的空间啊 .( 小天才宝贝电脑是否就是这个空间的初步介入呢。 ) 可能我想的简单了，但如果真有这天，我只能说：老乔，你真革命！
- 茶水铺 → 段永平 (2012-03-12 22:57): 手机、电脑、手提电脑、游戏机、中低端相机和录像机，在做好自己的产品就影响到了。 苹果还逐渐延伸和渗透到其他行业和产品的做法确实厉害，还紧密地连接在一起。
- Furrywalls → 段永平 (2012-03-13 06:53): 段总说得是。呵呵。
- Forrest → 段永平 (2012-03-13 19:01): 不由想到“Good to Great"中有一章的标题：直面残酷的现实。 受影响的还有：软件、教育、报纸杂志、广告、搜索?!
- A lifetime thing (2012-03-13 10:05): 生日快乐！
- NEWMAN (2012-03-13 00:49): 祝段兄生日快乐！阖家幸福！
- zjueehy (2012-03-13 00:30): 迟来的生日祝福…祝大师兄生日快乐，越长越年轻！锻炼多多，心态好好，开心天天，生活甜甜。
- 竹天 (2012-03-12 22:56): 段哥，生日快乐！
- 加忠 (2012-03-12 21:37): 生日快乐！！
- 憨厚老农 (2012-03-12 19:45): 祝学长生日快乐~~
- Patience (2012-03-12 15:28): 生日快乐，阖家幸福！
- 张磊 (2012-03-12 13:40): 祝段总和你的宝贝女儿生日快乐、阖家幸福
- 小虎子 (2012-03-12 13:25): 生日快乐!
- yiguxiang0822 (2012-03-12 13:12): 迟到的祝福：祝段先生和您的女儿生日快乐！身体健康！
- oppohjw (2012-03-12 12:59): 衷心祝福段总及您的女儿生日快乐！
- xlli777 (2012-03-12 12:02): 生日快乐！阖家欢乐！
- 绿色茶农 (2012-03-12 11:41): 祝段大哥及您的女儿生日快乐！
- invest_for_fun (2012-03-12 11:27): 向段总及各位网友请教下面的问题。 已经重仓了股票A，现在发现股票B到了更有吸引力的买入价格。 但目前已经没有足够的现金，而A还没有盈利。 请问倾向于哪种选择？ 1) 不动，继续持有A。 2) 抛掉A转换成B。
- abzy666 (2012-03-12 09:07): 敬祝大哥生日快乐
- 张信华 (2012-03-12 08:23): 我必须承认昨晚我在读这篇文章的时候一直在颤抖。虽然我已经有这样想象过iPad的未来，但听到人家分析出来之后感觉还是非常的震撼。睡了一个晚上到现在还不能平静下来，看来要鸡冻好几天甚至个把星期了（16号发售的盛况又来了）。谁有这样的感觉么？难道我已经被果粉了？？？
- 邵元富 (2012-03-12 07:56): Wishing you and your daughter—— glad days filled with friendliness, bright days filled with cheer, warm days filled with happiness to last throughout the year! Have a wonderful brithday!
- 刘志生 (2012-03-12 00:43): 祝段总和女生日快乐！球越打越好！
- wln258 (2012-03-11 21:48): 祝段总及您的女儿生日快乐！
- 高山流水 (2012-03-11 21:40): 祝段总和小女生日快乐！健健康康！平平安安！开开心心！ 也刚好是我来到段总博客满两周年的日子。感谢段总帮我解决了一直困扰的我问题： 如何解决随着资金量的越来越大，一点亏损可能就会将前几年的收益吃掉（那怕是百分之百），那就是价值投资：卡片打洞原则（少出手，出手则准狠），安全边际（在能力圈内才能知道究竟安不安全）。
- 耐心最重要 (2012-03-11 21:39): 祝段老师和女儿生日快乐！ ， ，两份 ！！！
- 千里牛 (2012-03-11 21:20): 祝段总生日快乐，祝您的女儿生日快乐！
- 王一飞 (2012-03-11 21:19): 段大哥你烟戒没？真希望你已戒掉啦！ 祝你生日快乐，平平安安！！
- 施志强 (2012-03-11 21:17): 祝段大哥和您的女儿生日快乐！两人一天真好
- 陈展 (2012-03-11 21:14): 祝段先生生日快乐、开心平安。
- 王夕刚 (2012-03-11 14:28): 祝段大哥及您的女儿生日快乐！
- 段永平 → 王夕刚 (2012-03-11 15:28): 谢谢！
- chunshut → 段永平 (2012-03-11 20:14): 同祝!!
- valuefix → 段永平 (2012-03-11 20:30): 祝段先生及您的女儿生日快乐！ 想起了去年同期的博文呢。呵呵
- snoopy10126 → 段永平 (2012-03-11 20:52): 祝段大哥生日快乐，天天开心！
- 润政 (2012-03-11 20:37): 祝段大哥及您的女儿生日快乐
- wzh (2012-03-11 20:24): 生日快乐！
- 筑道 (2012-03-11 19:47): 同祝段总生日快乐！
- 伍兴 (2012-03-11 18:25): happy birthday!
- mikeforvip (2012-03-11 16:52): 同祝段大哥生日快乐！
- 朗朗乾坤 (2012-03-11 13:18): 昨天Ipad1 WI-FI突然不能用了 ，找到发票一看是去年4月2日从京东商城购买的，距离一年保修期满还有20多天 ，遂与京东返修客服联系，态度挺好，当即帮助提交返修申请，并回复3天内上门收PAD，30日左右可维修好。考虑到仅有20天就过保修期了，就问客服能不能帮忙快点维修，客服将苹果售后客服号码发给我，让我联系看看。致电苹果客服，服务态度很好，先指导我操作一遍PAD，排除软件问题，确认是WI-FI模块硬件有问题，让送售后维修。经询问，我所在的小城没有售后维修点，距离最近的维修点是南京。考虑到我的质保期快满，苹果客服建议我：1、直接把PAD送到南京维修点（并将南京两个售后点地址、联系电话通过EMAIL发给了我）；2、花500多块钱续保。想想准备年底买部新的PAD3，就不想再花500多块钱续保了。再致电苹果南京售后点询问，答复一周左右时间可以修好。又考虑到咱所在小城距离南京3小时车程，往返两次车油费、过路费就不止500块了，遂放弃去南京。于是乎，再联系京东，并决定自行将PAD送到京东自提点（省了京东上门收货的3天时间），顺便看看京东全国呼叫中心咋样 抵达后，自提点人员服务态度很好，查验好货物后，打印返修单据，并告知30天左右维修好后由京东派送员直接帮我送上门，不需要我再跑自提点了 感受：1、苹果的一代PAD质量没想象的好（可能是个案，但上次买IPHONE 4S时也经历过因质量问题换货的，为什么受伤的总是我 ）；
- 稀土老农 (2012-03-11 10:43):
- andyge51545804 (2012-03-11 09:11): 苹果天马行空的想象力付出实践，变为产品。每一步的积累，每一步的创新，成就了苹果。每个公司都需要一支具有想象力创新团队很重要，而变为操作简单一件精美艺术品，我想那是每个人都需要的，这也是无法想象的，我希望我国也有那么也有一支公司队伍，哎 感叹